Entries from July 2007

July 30, 2007

If Canada can jointly market potash, why can’t SA jointly market PGM?

Anglo has 194 million ounces of proven and probable PGM resources in the ground. At $1320 per ounce for platimum, this asset has in situ value of at least $200b USD. They have another 500 million ounces-plus of inferred resources. So on an in situ asset base of almost $1 trillion, they are making $2.5b [...]

July 27, 2007

Kumba, strategically stranded

So many people do really detailed models on the trees and simply miss the forest. I am going to do a 3-4 hour job on Kumba.
Anglo has stranded Kumba, because it only owns 65% of it and not all of it. When Anglo did the deal with MMX in Brazil it was done directly, without [...]

July 23, 2007

Diamonds might be a girl’s best friend, but they aren’t the best business for Anglo

Anglo owns 45% of deBeers through an interesting holding structure, and what is amazing is how little money they make off of it. DeBeers’ market is around 50 m carats of stones per year, and makes on an EBITA basis $1.2b in margin each year. Rather a small profit on such a legendary business.
After looking [...]

July 18, 2007

It’s the market control, stupid

Companies have value when they have control of a market, or when demand for their product or service exceeds supply. When both happen, like now, some companies get rich. I want to focus on control.
With Anglo Platinum, if they shut down their production, most modern emission control systems could not be produced. They represent Ford’s, [...]

July 16, 2007

Forget Alcan, it’s Anglo that is ripe for a take over

Everyone is hunting for the elusive great white whale that will get taken out of the market, and Rio Tinto has laid down the gauntlet with Alcan. But I think the better target is Anglo.
Mining is about two things: market concentration, and market concentration. Anglo offers that in spades. It owns two businesses, platinum and [...]

July 16, 2007

Why this blog

The Roche Bay List has worked well for over five years. Often it cut in-depth into the issues around various iron ore and steel projects. My opinions and predictions may not have always been right, but I had something to say. As the Roche Bay project grew,  the List started to fall out of place with a more mature company.
However, I still want to write, and after looking [...]