Anglo has 194 million ounces of proven and probable PGM resources in the ground. At $1320 per ounce for platimum, this asset has in situ value of at least $200b USD. They have another 500 million ounces-plus of inferred resources. So on an in situ asset base of almost $1 trillion, they are making $2.5b [...]
Entries from July 2007
July 27, 2007
Kumba, strategically stranded
So many people do really detailed models on the trees and simply miss the forest. I am going to do a 3-4 hour job on Kumba.
Anglo has stranded Kumba, because it only owns 65% of it and not all of it. When Anglo did the deal with MMX in Brazil it was done directly, without [...]
July 23, 2007
Diamonds might be a girl’s best friend, but they aren’t the best business for Anglo
Anglo owns 45% of deBeers through an interesting holding structure, and what is amazing is how little money they make off of it. DeBeers’ market is around 50 m carats of stones per year, and makes on an EBITA basis $1.2b in margin each year. Rather a small profit on such a legendary business.
After looking [...]
July 18, 2007
It’s the market control, stupid
Companies have value when they have control of a market, or when demand for their product or service exceeds supply. When both happen, like now, some companies get rich. I want to focus on control.
With Anglo Platinum, if they shut down their production, most modern emission control systems could not be produced. They represent Ford’s, [...]
July 16, 2007
Forget Alcan, it’s Anglo that is ripe for a take over
Everyone is hunting for the elusive great white whale that will get taken out of the market, and Rio Tinto has laid down the gauntlet with Alcan. But I think the better target is Anglo.
Mining is about two things: market concentration, and market concentration. Anglo offers that in spades. It owns two businesses, platinum and [...]
July 16, 2007
Why this blog
The Roche Bay List has worked well for over five years. Often it cut in-depth into the issues around various iron ore and steel projects. My opinions and predictions may not have always been right, but I had something to say. As the Roche Bay project grew, the List started to fall out of place with a more mature company.
However, I still want to write, and after looking [...]