Top ten stories for July 15, 2008

1. The Economic Times: Moving iron ore by rail cheaper
Iron glides on steel as more ore hits the rails. Railroads help cushion rising input prices. Indian railways issue a 25% discount for domestic iron ore transportation to ports in an attempt to help steelmakers.

2. Reuters UK: Russia’s Mechel says Q1 net soars to $500 million
No more (iron) curtains to make, but profit to take. Double net profit earnings for Russian coking coal miner Mechel. Strong growth leads to a first quarter $500 million net profit windfall. Favorable conditions are expected to continue.

3. Bloomberg.com: JSW in talks to acquire United Coal, other U.S. mines
Indian steelmaker JSW placed an initial $2 billion bid for United Coal. Interest in the coal mine is part of an attempt to secure supplies after recent price rises of steel inputs. JSW is also looking at other U.S. mines.

4. Reuters Africa: Shanghai copper down with thin volume, zinc eases
U.S housing problems and slowing Chinese consumption are at the top of analysts’ explanations for copper’s declining demand and price. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw copper prices down 0.3% with weak trading volume.

5. CNN Money: Rio Tinto to supply Wal-Mart with gold, silver
Frodo gets a new, always-low-priced ring thanks to Rio and Wal-Mart. The mining company has agreed to supply gold and silver to the world’s largest retailer for a new traceable line of jewelry. The financial terms of the agreement were not disclosed.

6. Reuters India: Asia gold –sales of scrap pick up, bullion near four-month high
Gold trading still active in Asian markets. Current spot prices for gold hover in the high $900s, and some some are expecting another break of the $1,000-an-ounce barrier.

7. The London Free Press: Gold firm goes drilling for oil
Barrick switches to self-service stations. Barrick Gold Corporation hopes to acquire oil company Cadence Energy in an attempt to lower its energy costs.

8. Bloomberg.com: Diamonds attract funds as largest gem prices surge 76% in year
Diamonds are an investor’s best friend. The market for diamond investing is growing—high-value diamonds such as blue and pink diamonds have increased 75-100% in price over the past year.

9. The Canberra Times: India is hungry for our uranium
Renewed talks between the U.S. and India of civil nuclear cooperation illuminate global uranium tensions. Australia reviews its relationship with India and its current position to not sell uranium directly to the country, also evaluates stance on India’s possible induction into the global civil nuclear regime.

10. Australian Broadcasting Corporation: Diamond mine budget doubles
Despite doubled projected costs, diamond miner Argyle Diamond continues with plans to move from open cut to underground mining at its Western Australian location.

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Filed under By Kristin, Daily top ten

Chinese sell out of U.S. project to Cliffs

PR-Insider.com: Cleveland-Cliffs updates 2008 iron ore revenue-per-ton guidance; provides commentary on 2009 North American iron ore pricing

Reuters: Cleveland-Cliffs buys out minority holder in Minnesota

What is 30% of 5.2 million tonnes of U.S. pellet production worth? Apparently a whole lot of money. Let’s break down the math. Cleveland-Cliffs bought 30% of United Taconite from Laiwu for $100 million + 1.5 million shares + 1.2 million tonnes of seaborne pellets. That’s $100 million in cash, $167 million in shares, and $168 million in pellets (assuming the pellets are from Wabush and worth $140 per tonne). So, the total price Cliffs is paying is US$435 million.

Now United Taconite has 5.2 million tonnes of production, and 30% of that is 1.56 million tonnes of production. Cliffs is estimating North American Pellet prices to be $85. (I could devote a whole blog to the silly North American pricing model.) Costs are $56, so the margin per tonne is $29. The earnings from this stake in United Taconite pre-tax are US$44 million. So Cliffs paid 9.9 times the pre-tax earnings of this stake to buy it. This is a very good price considering that Cliffs trades for a price-earnings ratio well in excess of that.

The interesting bit here is not that Cliffs bought this, but that the Chinese sold out. Apparently they felt that they could get better returns elsewhere. I can understand the attraction of the cash to the Chinese. This is hard currency that is outside of China, and it probably can be reinvested outside of China into other things without government control. I would expect to see Laiwu go out and buy something now. The question is, just what? They can leverage, so I would expect something with a US$1.2 billion price tag—could be a mini mill, a coal mine, or maybe some ships.

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Filed under By Benjamin, Cliffs, Iron Ore, Mining

From my day job

Advanced Explorations Inc. to earn up to 70% interest in Roche Bay Project

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Filed under Advanced Explorations Inc., By Benjamin, Roche Bay

Sinosteel almost gets Midwest


Sinosteel gets control, but likely to have company at Midwest

Okay, they have more than 50%, but they are probably not going to get 100%, and that sort of makes their life hard. They are going to be stuck in never-never land like Portman. They’re going to have shareholders whom they are going to have to take care of, and a stock market listing that they are going to have to maintain. The real interesting bit is going to be seeing how Sinosteel deals with having a listed company. Can they deal with the regulations and the paper work?

This, however, leaves them with a stock market listing where they could maybe stick other assets and raise money if they wanted to. I am just not sure if the Chinese have a need like the Indians do for capital. If it were an undercapitalized Indian company gaining control of Midwest, this listing would make a lot of sense to keep. However, it seems China has lots of capital to place, and not enough places to put it, so the public company will probably have less value than it would if they were short on capital.

So Sinosteel now has an iron ore resource in the hinterlands of Australia. It has to deal with Murchison, Mitsubishi, and the Australian government, not to mention a few remaining shareholders, before it can develop it. It’s going to be quite a mess and good fun to watch.

Benjamin

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Filed under By Benjamin, Iron Ore, Midwest, Sinosteel

Old news, EU antitrust wants more time to look at Rio Tinto-BHP deal

Forbes.com: EU extends deadline for inquiry into BHP Billiton’s buy of Rio Tinto to December 9

The EU wisely said, “Wait a second, do we really want a really, really large mining company?” and now is going to spend more time taking apart the BHP-Rio Tinto merger. On the back of this, expect the EU to put in place some serious requirements that force BHP to sell off assets to make the merger happen. Maybe by Christmas time Mittal will have fully consolidated the Labrador Trough with all three mines: IOC, Wabush, and QCM. Then again, maybe BHP will not get Rio Tinto and the status quo will stay the same.

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Filed under BHP, Iron Ore, Rio Tinto

It is all in the market control

The Australian: Treasurer slams gate on Chinese raids

This article asks the most basic of questions, “The question here is, is it in Australia’s national interest for a buyer of our resources to control our resource-producing companies?”

That’s not a bad question to ask, and it’s one that is going to shape the debate on how much resources China can buy around the world. It is one thing to want to break up the oligopoly on iron ore to help the little guy ship a bit of ore. But if it is the customers doing the breaking by owning mines and then supplying themselves, that is very scary.

I am not being tongue-in-cheek. As China becomes a bigger consumer, and as its ability to invest in more companies increases, more and more countries are going to face the question of how China’s new role in the world affects them. As for Australia, it has to figure out what is in its best interest, and it is going to have to figure that out quickly.

That being said, today is a day of national pride here in the United States, so Happy 4th of July.

Benjamin

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Filed under Iron Ore

BHP falls in line behind Rio Tinto’s iron ore price, maybe

Not much news here, but if it is true, BHP matched Rio Tinto’s price for 2008. Not a huge surprise.

Bloomberg.com: BHP will agree iron ore price in line with Rio Tinto, Financial Times says

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Filed under BHP, Iron Ore, Rio Tinto